Newmont's Record Cash Gusher: The Gold Miners Finally Catch Up
While you were busy arguing about AI, the gold miners started printing money.
Newmont (NEM) just delivered the sixth consecutive earnings beat in its streak, and the real headline isn’t the EPS — it’s the free cash flow. Record. Full stop. The board responded by expanding the buyback. Shares popped 6.96% into the open and they’re still climbing.
The Setup: The Margins Finally Caught Up
Here’s what most people miss about the gold rally: the bullion price ran for two years before the miners participated. Gold went from $2,000 to $4,700. The stocks? Flatlined until March. That’s the classic “Golden Disconnect” the Gold World team has been pounding the table about.
Newmont’s Q1 just ended the disconnect. At $4,700+ gold, the company is generating roughly $2,800/oz in all-in cash margin. That is not a typo. That is the fattest margin profile the gold mining industry has seen in modern history. And Newmont is choosing to return it to shareholders via buybacks — not plow it into splashy M&A.
That’s what confident management teams do when they see where bullion is going.
Why It Matters: Brian Hicks’ “Boring Phase” Is the Loading Zone
Brian Hicks over at Wealth Daily called it this week — gold has entered its boring phase. Prices have stabilized around $4,700. Volatility has cooled. The headlines moved on to AI.
And that’s the tell. The MoneyQuake thesis isn’t over — it’s consolidating. Central banks bought at record levels in Q1. Global debt is at historic highs. Fiat credibility is eroding. The Strait of Hormuz crisis just poured kerosene on every one of those trends.
When gold goes “boring,” the miners have to re-rate. Because cash flow at $4,700 gold is the kind of structural beat the market can’t ignore forever. Newmont just proved it.
The Play
NEM breaks out above $72 and you have a clean shot at $85 near-term, $100 medium-term. If you don’t want single-stock risk, GDX (VanEck Gold Miners ETF) is the proper vehicle — it gives you Newmont plus the other majors plus a handful of mid-tiers that will catch the second wave. For the speculative money, GDXJ (junior miners) historically runs 2–3x the majors once the miner trade goes vertical. Keep an eye on Hecla (HL) and Aris Mining (ARIS) ahead of their earnings. Stop: GDX closing below $55 kills the thesis. Otherwise, sit on your hands and let the compounding do the work — boring is where fortunes are made, remember?