Mark your calendar: NVIDIA reports Q1 fiscal 2027 earnings after the bell on May 20.
That’s 19 trading days from now, and it’s the single biggest event left on the entire 2026 earnings calendar. Here’s why.
NVIDIA already told the market in late February that current-quarter (Q1 FY27) revenue would come in at $78 billion, plus or minus 2%. Wall Street had been modeling $72.6 billion. That’s a $5+ billion beat before the company even prints — and it implies 77% revenue growth in a single quarter for a company with a $4 trillion market cap.
For context: NVIDIA’s full fiscal 2026 (ended January 2026) revenue was $215.9 billion, up 65% year-over-year. Data center is now 91% of total sales. The company is effectively a pure-play AI infrastructure name with a side hustle in gaming GPUs.
The Wall Street consensus is staked out: 57 buys, 2 holds, and 1 sell, with an average price target of $268.61. That implies meaningful upside from current levels, and it’s been climbing every week since the February guide.
What’s the risk? Two things. First, China — NVIDIA’s H20 export situation remains the wild card, and any new Commerce Department restrictions could lop $5-10 billion off the FY27 outlook. Second, hyperscaler digestion. AWS, Azure, GCP, and Meta have collectively ordered roughly $400 billion in 2026-2027 capex. If even one major hyperscaler signals a slowdown, the AI-infrastructure trade gets re-rated overnight.
The Play
Historically, NVIDIA has run higher into earnings 7 of the last 8 quarters, with an average gain of 6.4% in the three weeks pre-print. That’s the setup we’re in now. But the post-earnings move has been increasingly muted as expectations rise — the last two prints saw the stock close lower the day after a beat. The smart-money positioning, per the latest CFTC commitment-of-traders data, shows large speculators are net long but well off peak exposure. Translation: room to add. If you’re already long NVDA, hold through. If you’re not, consider scaling in over the next 10 trading days rather than chasing a single entry. Avoid the temptation to load up on weekly options the day before earnings — implied volatility will be brutal. June or July expirations give you more breathing room if the post-print reaction takes a few days to play out.