Tesla Trading Above Its Own Price Target — Jefferies Just Raised the Bar Anyway

Only Tesla.

Jefferies raised its TSLA price target this morning from $300 to $350 — and the stock is already trading at $395. That’s a “Hold” rating on a stock that has blown past its own upside target by 13%. Jefferies cited “higher mid-term growth expectations” to justify the move.

Shares are up nearly 14% in the last week. Earnings hit Wednesday after the bell.

The Setup

Here’s the consensus setup: Q1 revenue of $21.2 billion (up 10% year-over-year, but down 15% from Q2 pace). Analysts expect a soft quarter on EV deliveries — the China price war has been brutal and European demand is wobbly. The entire bull thesis rides on robotaxi.

Elon has been teasing a full rollout update. If he delivers a credible timeline and fleet economics, Tesla gets another leg up. If he hand-waves, the stock finally pays for outrunning its fundamentals.

Jefferies was blunt about the risk: “Q1 results will show further widening of the gap between vision and execution, and barring a convincing announcement on robotaxi roll-out, may fuel concern about funding and raise the logic of an eventual merger with SpaceX.”

Read that last line again. A sell-side shop is openly floating a Tesla-SpaceX merger as a funding solution. That’s not normal analyst talk.

Why It Matters

Tesla is trading like an AI stock — because it is one, at least in the narrative. The EV numbers don’t justify $395. The robotaxi story does. And when your valuation depends entirely on one product launch delivering on time, every earnings call becomes a coin flip.

We said back in January that Tesla was going to trade in $50 swings all year. Check the tape. It’s been violent in both directions.

The Play

Don’t chase into earnings. Implied volatility is already pricing a massive move (the $400 straddle is pricing roughly ±9%). You’re paying for the fireworks.

If you want exposure, the smarter trade is a put spread — sell the $380 put, buy the $360 put — which pays out if robotaxi delivers and the stock holds $380, while capping your downside if Elon fumbles.

For owners sitting on gains: the $420 call sale is a cheap way to lock in. If the stock rips past $420 on robotaxi, you caught most of the move anyway.

The takeaway: this is a headline trade now, not a fundamentals trade. Size accordingly.